Climate Change & Vector-Borne Disease

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) global habitat suitability is modelled using the EMAC atmospheric climate model for the time period 2000-2010 and contrasted with the period 2045-2055 using the A2 IPCC scenario.

Aedes albopictus is an epidemiologically important vector for the transmission of many viral pathogens, including the Yellow fever virus, dengue fever and Chikungunya fever.

Although Aedes albopictus is native to tropical and subtropical regions, they are successfully adapting themselves to cooler regions. In the warm and humid tropical regions, they are active the entire year long; however, in temperate regions they hibernate over winter. Eggs from strains in the temperate zones are more tolerant to the cold than ones from warmer regions.

The global ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model includes sub-models describing tropospheric and middle atmospheric processes andtheir interactions with oceans, land and vegetation, and trace species emissions of natural and anthropogenic origin. It uses the first version of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy1) to link multi-institutional computer codes. The core atmospheric model is the 5th generation European Centre Hamburg general circulation model.

Climate Modelling